In early 2023 — days before Substack launched Notes — Chris gave Elon Musk a courtesy heads-up on the call. Elon responded by offering to acquire Substack and make Chris CEO of Twitter/X, saying he didnt want the CEO role and needed one.
Did: Declined. Chris went through an "accelerated process of thinking about that" and concluded Elon would still run the place, make all decisions, and not let Substack stay a neutral free-speech platform.Outcome: Elon took the Notes launch (and implicitly the refusal) as a "no." Within 24 hours Substack links were suppressed on Twitter; searching for "Substack" briefly broke. Musk said "we can bury you." But by 2023 Twitter-share of Substack traffic had been declining for years — the attack was absorbed. Linda Yaccarino was hired as X CEO weeks later.
The price and title of an acquisition are irrelevant if the acquirer removes your ability to execute the mission — acquirers with strong operator identities cannot give up decision authority even when they hire CEOs.
Part of an emerging decision pattern across multiple episodes
Bill Bishop had been running a free China newsletter (Sinocism) for 5 years, was talking publicly about paywalling it "soon" for months without actually doing it. Chris Best and Hamish McKenzie had a working MVP but no first customer.
Did: Hamish jumped into Bill Bishops inbox uninvited with a "be our Guinea pig" offer — Substack would handle all the paywall infrastructure so Bill could focus on writing. Bill agreed. Chris duct-taped Stripe to enable it in weeks.Outcome: Bills launch day hit six-figure ARR within hours. That single customers revenue number reframed Substacks YC application (originally at $0 revenue) — YC accepted, seed investors followed, and "you just need 4-5 more Bill Bishops" became the thesis (which turned out to be harder than YC predicted but the momentum carried them).
The ideal MVP launch is a bespoke product for one sophisticated operator who has already stated the demand — their launch moment becomes your launch moment, and one customers revenue day converts investor narrative from thesis to proof.
Part of an emerging decision pattern across multiple episodes
Kik had reached ~300M users globally by ~2015, valuation >$1B, but had no working business model. Pivots to monetization were failing.
Did: Launched a cryptocurrency/ICO as a monetization Hail Mary, partly to raise money and partly to answer "what do you do with a free messenger that lots of people use but makes no money."Outcome: Chris Best did not believe in the crypto direction and left in 2017. Kik subsequently continued to decline; WhatsApp (cross-platform from day one) won the messaging category and exited at $22B to Facebook. Kik is now a cautionary tale.
Missing business model + platform dependency is the worst combination a consumer company can have; when the rescue monetization diverges from founder conviction, founders leave, which accelerates the decline into terminal.
Part of an emerging decision pattern across multiple episodes
In 2020, with the pandemic in full swing and institutional journalism under pressure (de-platformings, forced departures, advertiser boycotts), Substack had 100-ish employees, $15M Series A from a16z, and rapidly growing usage.
Did: Repositioned Substack publicly as a "getaway vehicle" for institutional journalists — the pitch: fuel it up, have the engine idling, claim your handle, be ready in case something unexpected happens.Outcome: Andrew Sullivan, Matt Taibbi, Barry Weiss, and Jennifer Rubin all defected from major institutions to Substack within 18 months. Substack grew ~6x in 2020 alone. The getaway-vehicle framing converted external political pressure into zero-CAC creator acquisition.
Position your product as the escape route for a visible class of people stuck inside an institution that is failing them — pre-enrollment before the escape is needed is the critical step; by the time the crisis hits, the decision is already made.
Part of an emerging decision pattern across multiple episodes